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Scenario analysis prompt for PowerPoint

A Bain-style prompt for strategy and planning teams that builds one four-scenario slide. It separates trends from uncertainties, picks two independent axes, gives each future indicators and triggers, and ends with no-regret moves, options to preserve and scenario-specific actions.

Output
1 slide, 16:9
Works with
Tosea, ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini
Updated
Scenario analysis example slide: demand growth by regulation 2x2, four named scenarios and three no-regret moves
Four futures 2x2 · Demand growth by regulation 2x2, four named scenarios and three no-regret movesGenerated in Tosea

Scenario analysis prompt

Fill in any highlighted fields, then copy or run it.

Build a four-scenario slide for [company] through [year]. Decide which investments to fund, preserve, or defer.

Use the attached evidence. Separate trends from uncertainties, rank the uncertainties, and select two independent axes.

For each scenario, add a name, implications, indicators, and triggers. End with no-regret moves, preserved options, and scenario actions. Do not invent probabilities or market forecasts that the sources do not contain.
64 words

Why this prompt works

  • Trends and uncertainties are split

    The prompt asks the model to separate known trends from real uncertainties and rank the uncertainties first. The axes come from the two that matter most.

  • The axes must be independent

    It asks for two independent axes. If the two drivers moved together, two of the four quadrants would be implausible and the matrix would mislead.

  • Every future has triggers

    Each scenario gets a name, implications, indicators and triggers, so the team knows which signals to watch and when to switch plans.

  • It ends with a funding call

    The prompt opens with fund, preserve or defer and closes with no-regret moves, preserved options and scenario actions. It bans invented probabilities and market forecasts.

Adapt it to your own deck

  • Feed it your trend research

    Attach market reports or a PESTEL summary, replace [company] and [year], and add "Quote the source for each uncertainty you rank."

  • Change the horizon

    A three-year horizon suits budget decisions; ten years suits capacity or portfolio bets. Name the decision you face so the axes match it.

  • Split it for a workshop

    For a planning offsite, ask for one slide per scenario plus the 2x2 summary: "Add one slide per scenario with a short narrative, early signals and our response."

Scenario analysis FAQ

What is scenario analysis in strategy?

Scenario analysis describes several plausible futures, usually built from two critical uncertainties, and tests a strategy against each one. The aim is a set of decisions that hold up across futures, not a single forecast.

What are no-regret moves?

Actions that make sense in every scenario you have drawn, such as building flexible capacity or diversifying suppliers. They can be funded now, while larger bets wait for a trigger.

Is this an official Bain template?

No. Bain-style describes a familiar consulting layout with a conclusion-led title and a clear decision bar. Tosea is not affiliated with Bain & Company.

Can I use this prompt in ChatGPT, Claude or Gemini?

Yes. Chat assistants return the scenario text and an outline. In Tosea you can attach your research with the prompt and get a slide you can edit and export to PowerPoint.

Bain-style describes a common consulting framework. Tosea is not affiliated with Bain & Company. Figures on the example slides are illustrative.

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